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  • 歐洲糧倉陷入沖突困境 國內玉米市場會不會遭殃? The European granary is in crisis, will the domestic corn market suffer?

         由于新冠疫情和全球通脹等諸多因素影響,從2020年至2021年全球糧價幾番創下新高。從全球供給來看,受南美玉米產區持續干旱影響,全球玉米產量和庫存均有所下滑。據USDA發布的2月最新供需報告顯示,全球2021/22年度玉米年末庫存下調至3.0222億噸,全球產量下調至12.0535億噸。巴西方面,2021/2022年度玉米產量下調至1.14億噸。整體來看全球玉米的產量及庫存均呈下降態勢,若繼續下滑,市場對供給端擔憂或將繼續升溫,從而提振玉米價格。

    Due to many factors such as the COVID-19 epidemic and global inflation, global food prices hit new highs several times from 2020 to 2021. From the perspective of global supply, due to the continued drought in the corn producing areas of South America, global corn production and inventories have declined. According to the latest supply and demand report released by USDA in February, global corn ending stocks for 2021/22 were lowered to 302.22 million tons, and global production was lowered to 1,205.35 million tons. In Brazil, corn production in 2021/2022 is lowered to 114 million tons. On the whole, the global corn production and inventories are in a downward trend. If the decline continues, the market's concerns about the supply side may continue to heat up, thereby boosting corn prices.

    根據聯合國糧農組織發布的數據來看,全球大豆、玉米、小麥等價格在今年1月份創下了近10年以來的新高。自上周以來俄烏局勢不斷升級,已經對全球農產品貿易格局產生明顯影響。隨著俄烏戰爭的爆發,引發全球大宗商品劇烈波動,人們擔心黑海地區谷物出口中斷,全球小麥及玉米等價格大幅上揚。截至2022225日的一周,全球飼糧價格大多上漲。其中芝加哥期貨交易所(CBOT)20225月玉米期約報收655.75美分/蒲,比一周前上漲3美分或0.46%。美灣2號黃玉米報價為每蒲750美分,比一周前上漲5.25美分或0.7%。EURONEXT交易所的20226月玉米期約報收268.25歐元/噸,比一周前上漲16.5歐元或6.6%。阿根廷玉米在上河的FOB現貨報價為299美元/噸,比一周前上漲11美元或3.8%。大商所20225月玉米期約報收2,840/噸,比一周前上漲65元或2.3%。

    According to data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, global prices of soybeans, corn, and wheat hit a new high in nearly 10 years in January this year. The escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine since last week has had a significant impact on the global agricultural trade pattern. With the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, global commodity prices fluctuated violently, people were worried that grain exports from the Black Sea region would be interrupted, and global prices of wheat and corn rose sharply. Global feed grain prices were mostly higher for the week ending February 25, 2022. Among them, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) May 2022 corn futures closed at about 655.75 cents per Bushel, up 3 cents or 0.46% from a week ago. US Gulf No. 2 yellow corn was quoted at 750 cents a Bushel, up 5.25 cents, or 0.7%, from a week ago. The June 2022 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange closed at around €268.25/tonne, up €16.50 or 6.6% from a week ago. The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was $299/ton, up $11 or 3.8% from a week ago. The May 2022 corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at around 2,840 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan or 2.3% from a week ago.

    眾所周知,俄羅斯和烏克蘭都是全球主要谷物出口國,合計占到全球小麥出口量的三成左右,占到玉米出口的19%。此外烏克蘭也是近年來我國的主要玉米進口來源國,2013年起我國開始首次采購烏克蘭玉米,之后兩年內取代美國成為我國的主要供應國,占到進口玉米總量的60%-86%之間。受中美貿易戰以及中國實施采購產地多元化等因素,烏克蘭玉米為非轉基因品種,得到國內更多買家的青睞。根據海關數據顯示,2021年度1-12月我國共進口玉米總量為2836萬噸,其中從美國進口玉米1982.81萬噸,占全年玉米進口總量的69.9%;其次是烏克蘭,進口量為824萬噸,占進口總量的29.1%。

    As we all know, Russia and Ukraine are the world's major exporters of grains, together accounting for about 30% of global wheat exports and 19% of corn exports. In addition, Ukraine has also been my country's main source of corn imports in recent years. Since 2013, my country has begun to purchase Ukrainian corn for the first time. In the next two years, it has replaced the United States as my country's main supplier, accounting for between 60% and 86% of the total imported corn. Affected by the Sino-US trade war and China's implementation of the diversification of purchasing origins, Ukrainian corn is a non-GMO variety and is favored by more domestic buyers. According to customs data, from January to December 2021, my country imported a total of 28.36 million tons of corn, of which 19.8281 million tons of corn were imported from the United States, accounting for 69.9% of the total annual corn imports; followed by Ukraine, with an import volume of 824 million tons. 10,000 tons, accounting for 29.1% of total imports.

    從時間節點來看,烏克蘭每年10月至次年5月是玉米主要出口窗口期,小麥出口主要是每年8-11月。烏克蘭幾乎所有玉米都是經由黑海港口運出。出口谷物(玉米、小麥和大麥)的三分之二通過鐵路運到港口,不到30%通過卡車運輸,剩下不到10%通過駁船沿第聶伯河運輸。近年來95%以上的烏克蘭谷物出口通過黑海西部的港口裝運出海,包括尤日尼、烏拉爾、奧德薩、米科拉耶夫和赫爾松。所有這些港口都位于烏克蘭玉米主生產區的南部。據新聞報道稱224日烏克蘭軍方已暫停所有港口的商業運營,與此同時俄羅斯的谷物交易也已經暫停,亞速海的航運暫停。228日烏克蘭海事管理局長稱,在俄羅斯結束軍事行動之前,烏克蘭港口將繼續關閉。研究機構SovEcon估計,俄羅斯和烏克蘭在本年度還有大約1350萬噸小麥和1600萬噸玉米需要出口。兩國糧食出口貿易的中止將會導致小麥、玉米等谷物供應的短缺,這可能導致國際市場上小麥價格、玉米價格的上漲,從而推高我國進口玉米成本。

    From the point of view of time node, Ukraine is the main export window period of corn from October to May of the following year, and the export of wheat is mainly from August to November each year. Almost all corn in Ukraine is shipped through Black Sea ports. Two-thirds of the grains exported (corn, wheat and barley) are transported to ports by rail, less than 30 percent by truck, and less than 10 percent by barge along the Dnieper River. More than 95% of Ukrainian grain exports in recent years have been shipped through ports in the western Black Sea, including Yuzhny, Urals, Odessa, Mikolaev and Kherson. All of these ports are located in the southern part of Ukraine's main corn-producing region. According to news reports on February 24, the Ukrainian military has suspended commercial operations at all ports, while grain trading in Russia has also been suspended and shipping in the Sea of Azov has been suspended. Ukrainian ports will remain closed until Russia ends its military operations, the head of the Ukrainian Maritime Administration said on February 28. Research firm SovEcon estimates that Russia and Ukraine still have about 13.5 million tonnes of wheat and 16 million tonnes of corn to export this season. The suspension of grain export trade between the two countries will lead to a shortage of grain supplies such as wheat and corn, which may lead to an increase in the price of wheat and corn in the international market, thereby pushing up the cost of imported corn in my country.

    相比國外糧食市場形勢,國內玉米市場供應充足。據國家糧食和物資儲備局統計數據顯示,2021年全國糧食產量再創新高,達到13657億斤,比上年增加267億斤。其中,秋糧產量10178億斤,增加191億斤;2021年進口糧食1.65億噸,其中第四季度超過3600萬噸。2021年進口的烏克蘭玉米也大多已經入庫。玉米庫存同比增長近10%。當前國家有關部門各類政策性庫存糧食競價銷售、專場銷售的頻率增加,計劃投放數量較大,已確定近期啟動政策性稻谷拍賣。政策性稻谷拍賣一定程度會促進飼料用稻米需求。

    Compared with the foreign grain market situation, the domestic corn market has sufficient supply. According to statistics from the State Bureau of Grain and Material Reserves, the national grain output in 2021 will hit a new high, reaching 1,365.7 billion catties, an increase of 26.7 billion catties over the previous year. Among them, the output of autumn grain is 1,017.8 billion catties, an increase of 19.1 billion catties; in 2021, 165 million tons of grain will be imported, of which more than 36 million tons in the fourth quarter. Most of the Ukrainian corn imported in 2021 has also been put into storage. Corn inventories rose nearly 10% year over year. At present, the frequency of auction sales and special sales of various policy stocks of grains by relevant state departments has increased, and the planned amount is relatively large. It has been determined that the policy-based rice auction will be launched in the near future. Policy-based rice auctions will boost the demand for feed rice to a certain extent.

    從國內供應基本面來看,自新作玉米上市以來,貿易商、加工企業入市收購相對謹慎,東北及華北主產區售糧進度均低于去年同期,造成種植戶留存玉米量較多,至少還有四成糧。隨著春耕春種的開始,種植戶購買農資變現需求趨增,售糧進度有望提升,局部區域或出現階段性賣壓。

    From the perspective of domestic supply fundamentals, since the launch of the new crop of corn, traders and processing companies have been relatively cautious in purchasing and purchasing. There are four percent of the grain. With the start of spring ploughing and spring planting, growers' demand for purchasing agricultural materials to realize cash is increasing, and the progress of grain sales is expected to improve, and there may be staged selling pressure in some areas.


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